Weather in europe december 2022: Surface air temperature for December 2022
Surface air temperature for December 2022
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In Europe, 2022 finished up with December as the 7th warmest December on record. In December 2022, southern Europe had above-average air temperatures, while northern Europe experienced below-average air temperatures.
Globally, the 2022 calendar year ranks as the 5th warmest year on record. In December, above-average temperatures also occurred in eastern Canada, northern Africa, Siberia, and the Chukchi Peninsula. Meanwhile, below-average temperatures were experienced in western Canada, in northern parts of the contiguous United States, in central Eurasia and across eastern Australia.
December 2022
Surface air temperature anomaly for December 2022 relative to the December average for the period 1991-2020. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Surface air temperature anomaly for December 2022 relative to the December average for the period 1981-2010. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE
In December 2022, European air temperatures, on average, were higher than for the 1991-2020 reference period. Spatially, however, a striking contrast was found, with the southern part of Europe experiencing the air temperatures that were higher than the 1991-2020 average. From the Iberian Peninsula and southern France across the Mediterranean into Italy and the Balkans, temperatures were well above average. Conversely, in northern Europe, air temperatures were below the long-term climatological values. The UK had cold conditions, as did Scandinavia and Iceland where Reykjavík recorded its lowest temperature since 1918.
Conditions over much of Europe became extremely mild towards the end of the month.
Elsewhere, December 2022 was characterised by some pronounced regions of above-average temperatures in eastern Canada, northern Africa, Siberia, and the Chukchi Peninsula. Below-average temperatures were experienced in western Canada, in northern parts of the contiguous United States, in central Eurasia, and across eastern Australia. The cold spell that affected the eastern United States, however, is mostly not seen in the monthly maps which illustrate how individual weather events can be obscured in the monthly statistics.
Above-average marine air temperatures occurred over the Mediterranean, northern Pacific, central North Atlantic, most of the South Atlantic, western South Pacific, and over most of the ocean neighbouring Antarctica. Temperatures were lower than average over a large area covering the tropical and southern sub-tropical eastern Pacific, where La Niña conditions persisted, as well as over a region off the coast of West Antarctica.
They were also below average in the northern North Atlantic, over the South Atlantic off Brazil, over parts of the western Pacific, off the western coastline of North America and over much of the Indian Ocean, west of Australia in particular.
Monthly global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020, from January 1979 to December 2022. The darker coloured bars denote the December values. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Monthly global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, from January 1979 to December 2022. The darker coloured bars denote the December values. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Globally, December 2022 was:
- 0.
27°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for December - the 7th warmest December in this data record
- 0.27°C cooler than December 2019, the warmest December on record.
- warmer than any December prior to 2015
27°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for DecemberEuropean-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies. The European-average temperature for December 2022 was 0.89°C above the 1991-2020 average. The month was Europe’s eighth warmest December in the data record since 1979, about 1.7°C cooler than December 2019, the warmest December in the record.
January to December 2022
Temperatures averaged over the the 2022 calendar year were:
- above the 1991-2020 average over most land areas and a large part of the ocean surface
- much above average over Greenland, western Europe and north-western Africa, north-western Siberia, central Asia and much of East Antarctica
- also well above average over seas around Antarctica and in the European sector of the Arctic, and over much of the North Pacific, part of the South Pacific, the western North Atlantic and the southernmost South Atlantic
- above average over almost all of Europe
- below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, where the La Niña event that peaked in late 2020 re-intensified later in 2021 and has continued through 2022
- below average over several other oceanic areas, including a large part of the southern Pacific and the western Indian Ocean
- below average over some land areas, including large regions in Canada, South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica.
Running twelve-month averages of global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020, based on monthly values from January 1979 to December 2022. The darker coloured bars are the averages for each of the calendar years from 1979 to 2021. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Running twelve-month averages of global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to December 2022. The darker coloured bars are the averages for each of the calendar years from 1979 to 2021. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Record temperatures in parts of Europe in 2022
Note on global values from ERA5 and other temperature datasets
There is general agreement among datasets that the period since 2015 is much warmer globally than any previous period.
There is also agreement that global temperature has risen at an average rate close to 0.2°C per decade since the late 1970s. There is nevertheless still some spread between the datasets for recent years, such as for 2020 and 2021, and the annual average temperature anomalies for these years from ERA5 are generally higher than those from the five other datasets considered. The differences range from 0.02 to 0.08°C for 2016-2021. The range is 0.00 to 0.07°C if air temperature over sea is replaced by sea-surface temperature for ERA5 and the other dataset for which sea-surface temperature was not used by design. The remaining differences depend partly on the extent to which datasets represent the relatively warm conditions that have predominated over the Arctic and Antarctic during these years. Differences elsewhere in estimates of sea-surface temperature and surface air temperature over land have been further factors.
The surface air temperature analysis homepage explains more about the production and reliability of the values presented here, but has yet to be updated to include the new information on dataset spread mentioned above.
Read more about longterm temperature changes for the globe, the Arctic and Europe in the Temperature indicator.
ERA5 datasets
- The calculation of percentiles and rankings of the 2022 annual mean temperature is based on ERA5 2-meter temperature data for 1950-2022.
- The ERA5 data for 1979-2022 come from the ERA5 monthly dataset available in the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS).
- The ERA5 data for 1950-1978 are based on the final version of the ERA5 back-extension, which has been produced but has not been publicly released yet (only a preliminary version is available in the CDS).
Calculation of country-based temperature rankings
- The rankings are calculated using ERA5 data on a 0.25°×0.25° grid.
- The country masks are based on shapefiles from Natural Earth (1:50m cultural v5.0.0). Corresponding gridded masks at a resolution similar to that of the ERA5 data are created using the regionmask python package.
- The country masks are applied to the data to generate country-average area-weighted annual temperature time series for 1950-2022 for European countries, from which the rankings for 2022 are derived.
- Only land grid points in the ERA5 land-sea mask are considered in the calculation.
- Statistics are not calculated for small countries not resolved by the ERA5 land-sea mask or represented by only one grid point.
- Data for Svalbard (not shown on the map) are included in the statistics for Norway.
Same as for the ranking figure in the highlighted box above. For those countries for which the next warmer year is within 0.1 C, hashing has been added in this figure. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Europe December 2022 Outlook : MarkVoganWeather.
com
Following a record warm, dry summer, November and autumn will go down as warm and wet.
Europe 2m temp anomaly
Sep
Credit: Weatherbell
Oct
Credit: Weatherbell
Nov
Credit: Weatherbell
This follows what has been a record warm year-to-date for UK as well as Europe.
Hints back in September of what was coming in December?
The pattern triggered by the phase 6, 7, 8 MJO/late season tropical development in early/mid Sep brought the UK’s coolest 2nd half to September since 2012 and has returned for early/mid December.
Bastardi of Weatherbell has stated for years that very wet November’s for the UK can often lead to cold December’s. 2009 and 2010 are prime examples.
From Joe Bastardi: Nov 2009, 2010 & 2022 rainfall & following Dec temp anomaly. pic.twitter.com/oaiAqGh3U1
— MarkVoganWeather.com 🇺🇦 (@MarkVogan) December 1, 2022
The AO/NAO is tanking to the strongest negative in 12 years!
Looks likely that it’s a gradual process to cold as Europe remains relatively mild and so east winds aren’t cold enough to bring snow to low levels.
Beast from the east’s almost never happen this early in the season, 2010 was quite exceptional.
Week 1 sees east wind (Scandi high), week 2 northeast wind (Greenland high) and this could present the coldest air and increase low level snow chances, week 3 could see a pattern shift with return of Atlantic air but it depends upon how anchored this Greenland block becomes and how much cold air is in the pattern.
The below shows the block focusing directly over Greenland week 2.
The cold pattern has potential to grip hard mid-month, especially if it turns snowy.
GFS ensemble has the cold intensifying through next week after a gradual trend downwards in temp.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The models have some impressively cold air over the UK mid month with persistent ‘waves’ of polar air sweeping south around the Greenland high.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Snow forecasting is a tricky one but as the air mass grows colder, so snow chances at all levels increase.
The GFS suggests an expanding snow cover mid month.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
My feeling is that the MJO rotating back into phases 1, 2 and 3 brings a shift to milder in the run-up to Christmas.
The GFS ensemble indicates at 50mb (lower stratosphere) a cool pool flipping warm above Greenland (block) with cold over N America & Europe, this would be mirrored at 500mb. However the cool pool returns to Greenland by 312hrs possibly suggesting the return of a Greenland trough N Am/Europe high.
Initial
168hrs
312hrs
Note the westward shift of the block and supportive of the above…
The GFS ensemble MJO forecast suggests change later in the month.
Models have been known to shift blocking highs too fast however and it’s ultimately impossible to say how long as well as strong this incoming cold pattern will be. You never know, it could be gone in 10 days, then again it could grow worse as the month progresses bringing a snowy Christmas to many.
December is likely to be a colder-than normal month throughout Northern Europe, warmer across the south and through the Med Basin.
Tags: featured, monthly-outlook
Applications for the transit of Russian gas through the GTS of Ukraine are stable, loading of the 2nd line of the MGP Turkish Stream is declining
3 min
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It’s warm in Europe, the generation of wind farms has updated the record, and the demand for gas is pre-holiday low.
Moscow, December 30 – IA Neftegaz.RU. Gas transit through the gas transmission system (GTS) of Ukraine continues only through the gas metering station (GIS) Sudzha, the main gas pipeline (GGP) Nord Stream-1 will not work in the foreseeable future, the Polish section of the GTS Yamal – Europe is not available to Gazprom.
nine0005
Supply routes
According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine (OGTSU), applications for gas pumping through the Sudzha GIS (the entry point to Ukraine from Russia at the Urengoy – Pomary – Uzhgorod gas pipeline) amounted to 42.4 million m 3 as of December 30, 2022.
Gazprom, for its part, announced that it was supplying Russian gas for transit through the Ukrainian GTS in the amount confirmed by the Ukrainian side through the Sudzha GIS – 42.4 million m 3 as of December 30.
Applications for the GIS Sokhranivka (the entry point to Ukraine of the IHL Soyuz) will be rejected by the Ukrainian side from May 11, 2022 due to the force majeure announced by the OGTSU, which Gazprom considers unmotivated. nine0023
Since May 2022, the volume of Russian gas transit through the GTS of Ukraine has fluctuated in the range of 40-43 million m
Loading 2 and lines of the IHL Turkish Stream, targeted at the market of South-Eastern Europe, is declining.
According to the data of the ENTSOG platform on the Strandzha-2/Malkochlar well logging on the border of Turkey and Bulgaria, the physical gas flow for the gas day on December 29 amounted to 30.01 million m3 3 .
The renomination to the Strandzha-2/Malkochlar well log for the gas day on December 30 indicates a decrease in pumping to 27.6 million m 3 .
After the damage to the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 26, 2022, gas supplies along this route were stopped without the possibility of prompt recovery.
One of the lines of the Nord Stream-2 MGP could remain unaffected, pressure has been reduced in it, Gazprom is working on its examination.
The authorities of the Russian Federation and Gazprom have confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply gas through the undamaged pipeline Nord Stream 2 in the event that regulatory permits are obtained. nine0023
The damages on 2 damaged pipelines of Nord Stream-1 and 1 pipeline Nord Stream-2 are significant, Gazprom considers it inexpedient to restore them without guarantees of demand and safety from the EU and Germany.
As an optimal option for gas supplies in the European direction, Gazprom has identified the creation of a large gas hub in Turkey;
Another route for Russian gas supplies to Europe – the Yamal-Europe pipeline – has been unavailable for Gazprom since May 11, 2022 due to the introduction of Russian counter-sanctions. nine0023
Weather, stocks and gas quotes in Europe
According to the weather service Woeurope, warm weather in Europe persists, local cooling is observed only in a number of Central European countries.
Warm weather will continue into the first days of the new year, cold air will begin to penetrate Europe from the east after January 5, 2023.
Electricity generation by wind farms (WPP) in Europe has updated the record.
According to WindEurope, 29December 2022, wind farms accounted for 32.8% of all electricity generated in the EU (29.1% the previous day).
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) as of December 28, 2022, underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in the EU were 83.
19% full, containing about 88.66 bcm 3 of gas.
According to the UGS occupancy level in the EU, the dynamics is 0 and (a decrease of 0.03 percentage points was recorded the day before).
Net downloads were in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany and Poland. nine0023
UGS facilities in Germany are filled by 89.07%, in France – by 84.01%, in Austria – by 86.39%, in Italy – by 82.72% (previously Gazprom’s largest markets in Europe).
Trading in gas futures on the TTF hub (Netherlands) on ICE Futures did not actually start as of 10:30 Moscow time on December 30.
The settlement price for February gas futures at the end of trading on December 29, 2022 was 85.6 euros / MWh (956.6 US dollars / 1000 m 3 ), an increase of 2.27% compared to the previous trading day.
nine0005
Authors:
E. Alifirova
Neftegaz.RU special correspondent
#gazprom
#gas transit through Ukraine
#gts of ukraine
#Ukraine
#ogtsu
#north stream
#turkish stream
The recovery of the European economy can push gas prices up
Evgeniy Razumny / Vedomosti
Exchange gas prices in Europe on January 17, 2023 for the first time since August 2021 fell below $600 per 1000 cubic meters.
m, according to the ICE exchange. nine0005
February gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands at 12:04 Moscow time reached 51.7 euros per 1 MWh, or $578 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. But already at 13:27 Moscow time, prices adjusted to 54.4 euros per 1 MWh, or $608 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.
Analysts attribute the current long-term decline in gas prices to significant fuel reserves in European underground gas storages (UGS) against the backdrop of warm weather in Europe and the generation of wind farms (WPPs).
Spot gas prices on the TTF have been falling since the end of August 2022, and in December the fall accelerated (Vedomosti wrote about this on December 23, 2022). At the very end of the year, the price of gas in Europe dropped below $800 for the first time since February 2022, and on January 5, 2023, for the first time since September 2021, it fell below $700 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.
This decline replaced a long period of high prices. The energy crisis in Europe began back in 2021.
It was caused by problems with filling underground storage facilities after record gas withdrawals in the winter of 2020-2021, as well as energy shortages as a result of a drop in wind power generation due to calm weather. Already by December 2021, spot gas prices in the EU reached a record, exceeding $2,200 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.00 per 1000 cu. m. Then the quotes gradually declined, but in August they again switched to a sharp increase, although they could not beat the March record.
On December 19, 2022, the EU countries agreed on a gas price ceiling of 180 euros per 1 MWh, which corresponds to $1975 per 1000 cubic meters. m. It will come into force on February 15, 2023. Analysts then noted that setting a ceiling at about $2,000 was “comfortable for the EU”, as it would not lead to the redirection of LNG supplies to other markets and would allow Europeans to successfully compete for free gas volumes. nine0005
Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, notes that the key factor in the decline in prices was the abnormally warm weather in the European region this heating season.
This, according to him, led to a revision of forecasts for the level of UGS occupancy by spring and the volume of demand for liquefied gas in the summer.
Leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov agrees with him. He notes that due to warm weather, gas withdrawals from European UGS facilities are low, and storage levels are high. “This means that in 2023 the EU will have to buy less gas to prepare for the next heating season, which calms the market,” the expert says. nine0005
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe and Vedomosti’s calculations, as of January 15 (latest available data), there were 88.2 billion cubic meters in European UGSFs. m of gas, the storage facilities were 81.5% full.
The increase in wind power production due to windy weather also contributes to the reduction of gas use, adds Yushkov. According to the WindEurope association, the generation of wind turbines in Europe in January provided from 16.5% to 35.4% of the EU energy balance against about 10% in the summer of 2022.
of the predicted scenarios. Against the backdrop of favorable weather factors, LNG supplies to Europe were at a consistently high level. nine0005
According to Yushkov, the current fall in gas prices is also affected by the decline in industrial fuel consumption in the EU. He does not rule out that in the first half of the year the price may fall below $500 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. The head of the German Federal Grid Agency (regulator of gas and electricity markets) Klaus Müller said in early January that the European gas market had reached a “price plateau” (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 9).
Kaufman, on the contrary, believes that the predicted cooling in Europe in the coming weeks may return prices in the EU above $800 per 1000 cubic meters. m next month. nine0005
Yushkov points out another risk of price acceleration in the form of growth in demand for LNG in Asia. The expert notes that gas prices in Asia are now higher than in Europe. Based on the data of the Platts index and Vedomosti calculations, gas prices in Asia last week were at $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.